USTR’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda signals continued and expanded use of tariffs, Section 232/301, and new agreements that will affect U.S. import duties and HTS use.

REGULATORY BRIEFING – USTR 2026 TRADE POLICY AGENDA

1. What Changed / Key Signals

The President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda does not itself amend specific HTS provisions or tariff lines, but it clearly sets the policy direction for continued and expanded use of:

• Supplemental tariffs (reciprocal tariffs) on imports from ART partner countries.
• Section 232 tariffs and related measures on a broad list of critical sectors.
• Section 301 tariffs and potential new investigations.
• A new plurilateral Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals (ATCM) that will use border‑adjusted price mechanisms (effectively tariff-like measures) on specific minerals and downstream products.

For trade compliance, this document is a forward‑looking roadmap indicating that U.S. import tariffs and Chapter 99 measures will remain elevated and may expand in scope across multiple sectors.

2. Affected Products and Sectors

The Agenda identifies several categories where import tariffs or trade remedies are in place or expected to be used. While it does not list specific HTS subheadings, it references the legal bases and sectors that map to defined HTS chapters and Chapter 99 provisions.

2.1 Sectors under Section 232 Focus (Critical Supply Chains)

The Agenda cites Department of Commerce Section 232 investigations and tariff actions covering:

• Steel and steel derivatives
• Aluminum and aluminum derivatives
• Automobiles, light trucks, and auto parts
• Copper and copper derivatives
• Timber, lumber, and wood products
• Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients
• Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment
• Medium/heavy duty trucks, truck parts, and derivatives
• Processed critical minerals and derivatives
• Commercial aircraft, jet engines, and parts
• Polysilicon and components
• Robotics and industrial machinery
• Personal protective equipment (PPE), medical consumables, and medical equipment

These sectors correspond broadly to HTS Chapters 72–76, 84–90, 29–30, 38, 44, 63, and related headings, with additional Chapter 99 provisions for Section 232 measures.

2.2 Section 301 Enforcement Areas

The Agenda confirms continued and potential new Section 301 actions, which typically appear as additional duties under HTS Chapter 99 on top of normal MFN rates. Ongoing or potential targets include:

• China (forced technology transfer, shipbuilding, semiconductors, Phase One compliance)
• Nicaragua (labor practices)
• Digital services taxes and digital discrimination
• Global overcapacity (e.g., metals, shipbuilding)
• Agricultural policies and pharmaceutical pricing

2.3 Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) Program

The ART program combines:

• Significant reductions or elimination of partner-country tariffs and non‑tariff barriers on U.S. exports; and
• A U.S. “modified tariff” (supplemental tariff above MFN) on imports from those partners.

Countries with signed ARTs: Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan.

Framework deals (being upgraded to ARTs or equivalent): Ecuador, European Union, India, Japan, North Macedonia, South Korea, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, Thailand, Vietnam.

For U.S. importers, this means:

• Imports from these countries are likely subject to additional U.S. tariffs (implemented via Chapter 99 provisions) beyond the standard MFN rate.
• The Agenda explicitly notes that these tariff tools are subject to judicial review and may change, but the policy intent is to maintain them.

2.4 Critical Minerals – Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals (ATCM)

The Agenda announces a forthcoming plurilateral ATCM that will:

• Establish “common border‑adjusted price mechanisms” for specific critical minerals and downstream products.
• Include provisions on labor, environment, export controls, stockpiling, and competitiveness.

This implies:

• New or adjusted tariff‑like charges or variable duties on imports of designated critical minerals and products containing them.
• Likely coverage of HTS headings for lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, graphite, and related processed forms, plus certain downstream products (e.g., battery materials, magnets).

3. Rate Changes and Quantitative Details

The Agenda is largely policy‑level and does not provide specific HTS lines or numerical duty rates. However, it contains several quantitative indicators relevant to trade policy:

3.1 Relative MFN Bound Rates (Context for Reciprocity)

• U.S. simple average MFN bound rate: 3.4%
• EU: 5%
• China: 10%
• Vietnam: 11.7%
• Brazil: 31.4%
• India: 50.8%

These figures underpin the Administration’s justification for maintaining higher supplemental tariffs on imports from certain partners.

3.2 ART Partner Commitments (Export-Side, but Signals Reciprocity)

While these are primarily about foreign tariffs on U.S. exports, they show the scale of reciprocal arrangements that are paired with U.S. supplemental tariffs:

• Indonesia: eliminate 99% of tariffs on U.S. products.
• Malaysia: eliminate 97% of tariffs on U.S. products.
• Cambodia: eliminate 100% of tariffs on U.S. products.
• India: eliminate 99% of tariffs on U.S. industrial goods.
• European Union: eliminate 100% of tariffs on U.S. industrial goods; provide preferential access for a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural products.
• United Kingdom: open market to US$700 million in U.S. ethanol exports and duty‑free treatment for US$250 million in additional U.S. agricultural exports (including beef).

On the U.S. side, the Agenda states that the United States will “maintain a modified tariff on the trading partner (i.e., a supplemental tariff higher than the statutory MFN rate)” under each ART, but does not specify the percentage levels. These are or will be implemented via specific Chapter 99 provisions and Federal Register notices.

4. Dates and Forthcoming Milestones

Key timing elements that will drive future import duty and HTS changes:

• April 2, 2025: Announcement of the reciprocal tariff program that led to the ART framework.
• 2025: Multiple Section 232 investigations initiated or modified (see sector list above).
• 2026 (full year):
• Continuation and expansion of ART negotiations and implementation.
• Ongoing enforcement of existing Section 301 actions.

• May 2026: USTR will commence the statutorily required Four‑Year Review of the Section 301 responsive action on forced technology transfer (China). This review can result in:
• Continuation, modification (including rate changes or product list changes), or termination of existing Section 301 tariffs.

• July 2026: USTR will consider whether to take action in the Section 301 investigation involving enforcement of U.S. rights in WTO disputes on large civil aircraft. This could lead to:
• New or adjusted additional duties (Chapter 99) on imports from targeted jurisdictions (historically, the EU and certain member states) covering aircraft and potentially a broader list of products.

• 2026 (no specific month given):
• Negotiation of the Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals (ATCM) with like‑minded partners.
• Joint Review of the USMCA with Mexico and Canada, which may lead to changes in rules of origin, anti‑transshipment measures, and potentially new trade remedies or enforcement actions affecting imports.

5. Required Actions for Importers, Brokers, and Compliance Teams

5.1 Monitor and Map Exposure to Section 232 Sectors

• Identify all imported products that fall within the sectors listed as subject to Section 232 investigations or tariff modifications:
• Steel, aluminum, copper, timber/lumber/wood products
• Autos, light trucks, auto parts; medium/heavy trucks and parts
• Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment
• Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients
• PPE, medical consumables, medical equipment
• Polysilicon, robotics, industrial machinery, commercial aircraft and parts
• Processed critical minerals and derivatives

Actions:

• Map these products to HTS codes and confirm whether they are currently subject to Section 232 duties or quotas (via CBP and Commerce/BIS notices).
• Build scenarios for potential rate increases, product list expansions, or quota adjustments in 2026.
• Ensure correct use of applicable Chapter 99 numbers for Section 232 measures on entry summaries.

5.2 Prepare for Section 301 Four‑Year Review and Potential New Actions

China – Forced Technology Transfer (Four‑Year Review):

• Review your current exposure to Section 301 China tariffs (all lists) and associated Chapter 99 subheadings.
• Anticipate possible:
• Continuation of existing rates.
• Re‑targeting of product lists (additions/removals).
• Rate adjustments (increases or decreases) on specific HTS lines.

Other Section 301 Areas:

• Monitor for new or expanded Section 301 actions related to:
• China’s shipbuilding and semiconductor practices.
• Nicaragua’s labor practices.
• Digital services taxes and digital discrimination.
• Agricultural and pharmaceutical policies.

Actions:

• Subscribe to USTR and Federal Register alerts for Section 301 notices.
• For products with significant China or other targeted‑country content, evaluate alternative sourcing or restructuring of supply chains.
• Ensure brokers are updated on current and potential future Chapter 99 requirements.

5.3 Track ART‑Related Supplemental Tariffs

Imports from ART partners (Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan; and future ARTs with EU, India, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, etc.) may be subject to supplemental tariffs above MFN.

Actions:

• Identify imports sourced from current and likely ART partners.
• Confirm whether any supplemental tariffs have been implemented for those countries and products (via HTS Chapter 99 and CBP guidance).
• Update landed cost models to reflect potential or actual additional duties.
• Monitor judicial developments, as the Agenda notes that the tools for implementing and maintaining tariffs in connection with ARTs are subject to judicial review.

5.4 Prepare for the Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals (ATCM)

Actions:

• Inventory all imported critical minerals and downstream products (e.g., battery materials, magnets, semiconductor‑grade materials) and map to HTS codes.
• Identify country of origin and assess whether they are likely to be ATCM participants or non‑participants (which may face different tariff treatment).
• Monitor USTR and Commerce announcements for:
• Lists of covered minerals and products.
• Specific border‑adjusted price mechanisms (e.g., variable tariffs, minimum import prices, or surcharges).
• Any associated Chapter 99 provisions.

5.5 Forced Labor and Non‑Tariff Measures

The Agenda notes that several ART partners will enact import bans on products made with forced labor. While this is primarily about their markets, it aligns with U.S. forced labor enforcement trends (e.g., WROs, UFLPA).

Actions:

• Continue to strengthen supply chain due diligence and documentation for high‑risk sectors (e.g., apparel, electronics, agriculture, seafood, mining).
• Ensure readiness to respond to CBP inquiries or detentions related to forced labor concerns.

5.6 USMCA Joint Review – Rules of Origin and Transshipment

The USMCA Joint Review in 2026 may lead to:

• Tighter rules of origin in key sectors (e.g., autos, steel, aluminum, critical minerals, electronics).
• Stronger anti‑transshipment and anti‑offshoring provisions.

Actions:

• Review current USMCA qualification strategies, especially for autos, auto parts, steel, aluminum, and high‑value manufactured goods.
• Assess vulnerability to changes in rules of origin (e.g., regional value content, labor value content, steel/aluminum sourcing requirements).
• Prepare to adjust sourcing or production structures if rules tighten.

6. References and Source Documents

Primary Agenda PDF:

• The President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda (USTR):

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20Trade%20Policy%20Agenda.pdf

Press Release:

• Ambassador Greer Announces 2026 Trade Policy Agenda and 2025 Annual Report (USTR site – main announcement page).

Related Reference Pages (for follow‑up on specific measures):

• Section 232 Investigations (Commerce/BIS):

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/section-232-investigations

• USTR Section 301 Investigations:

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations

• USTR Main Site (for ART and ATCM updates):

https://ustr.gov

7. Practical Next Steps Checklist

• Map exposure:
• Identify all imports in sectors flagged under Section 232 and Section 301.
• Flag imports from ART partner and framework countries.
• Review HTS classification:
• Confirm correct HTS and Chapter 99 usage for existing Section 232/301 measures.
• Monitor policy milestones:
• May 2026 – Section 301 Four‑Year Review (China forced technology transfer).
• July 2026 – Potential Section 301 action on large civil aircraft disputes.
• 2026 – USMCA Joint Review; ATCM negotiations.
• Update internal controls:
• Revise landed cost and sourcing models to account for continued or higher tariffs.
• Enhance forced labor due diligence and documentation.
• Coordinate with brokers and suppliers:
• Ensure brokers are briefed on potential new Chapter 99 requirements.
• Engage suppliers on origin, content, and potential re‑sourcing options.

This Agenda is a strong signal that elevated and more targeted import tariffs and trade remedies will remain a central feature of U.S. trade policy in 2026, particularly for critical sectors and trade with China, USMCA partners, and ART countries. Compliance teams should treat it as a roadmap for where tariff and HTS changes are most likely to occur and prepare accordingly.